IP: More on Palm VII + Wireless + E-Commerce

[Dave Farber <farber@cis.upenn.edu>]

To: farber@cis.upenn.edu
From: Michael Gold <gold@sri.com>
Subject: Re: IP: Palm VII + Wireless + E-Commerce
Cc: reiter@wirelessinternet.com
Date: Thu, 03 Dec 1998 17:33:26 -0800

I'm not on the list, but somebody sent me this, so perhaps you'd be
interested in my response:

--Suppliers have been spewing technology-driven wireless data foo since the
EO and MagiCap, so nothing new there;
--They will continue doing so until someone finds a killer application,
which they haven't yet done;
--People who talk on the phone have zero demand for a wire; therefore
--Wireless voice, eliminating wired phone service, looks to be the killer
application for the next few years, not wireless data.
--Note that mobile voice services charge $0.10 to $0.40 per minute for what
amounts to a 9.6 kbit/s connection with high bit error rates;
--Silicon valley can't change that circumstance--only the telcos can, but
why should they bust up a profitable voice business?
--Therefore, tons of money will be lost in the next five years by people
with dreams of mobile electonic commerce, who know nothing about packets,
nothing about electronmagnetics, nothing about batteries, and nothing
whatsoever about usability of tiny screens surrounded by tinier buttons.
--but maybe it makes sense to start up such a silly company and sell it to
AOL or whoever
--IOW, the "exit strategy" that many startups are into, is the 21st century
version of the "greater fool theory" (that is, I may be a fool to buy IBM
stock at 100, but there's a greater fool out there who'll pay 110;
likewise, somebody may be a fool for starting Unwired Planet [do Web
commerce through the peephole of a 4-line cell phone display!] but maybe
Microsoft is a greater fool who'll pay scads of money for it.)

-MG

Michael Gold, Senior Research Engineer, Media Futures Program
SRI Consulting, div. of SRI International
333 Ravenswood Avenue, Menlo Park, California, 94025 USA
voice: 650 859 6354     fax: 650 859 4544
http://www.sri.com
http://www.sriconsulting.com
http://future.sri.com


>----- Forwarded message from Dave Farber <farber@cis.upenn.edu> -----
>From: Dave Farber <farber@cis.upenn.edu>
>Subject: IP: Palm VII + Wireless + E-Commerce
>
>Date: Thu, 03 Dec 1998 14:25:46 -0500
>From: "Alan A. Reiter" <reiter@wirelessinternet.com>
>Reply-To: reiter@wirelessinternet.com
>Organization: Wireless Internet & Mobile Computing
>Subject: Palm VII + Wireless + E-Commerce
>
>There has been a lot of press about the wireless-enabled Palm VII that's
>slated to come out.  There's an interesting aspect that no one seems to
>have touched upon: the creation of a wireless e-commerce market
>business.
>
>The wireless industry has been searching for new revenue streams, and
>one of the biggest potential opportunities will be electronic
>transactions combined with automatic "device" location services.  It's
>just a matter of time before subscribers receive offers based upon their
>preferences and location.
>
>Many companies providing services for the Palm VII -- Bank of America,
>Certicom, E*Trade , Netscape, Ticketmaster and Yahoo -- could be
>participants in the early days of building a wireless e-commerce
>business.
>
>Granted, it's somewhat esoteric today.  But...For example, a Palm VII
>user could receive concert information from Yahoo, transfer cash from a
>stock sale via E*Trade to a Bank of America credit card to pay for
>tickets through Ticketmaster with security provided by Certicom, and
>then send e-mail to a friend inviting him/her to the concert using
>Netscape's mail system.
>
>However, the Palm VII's wireless strategy is not without problems.
>Battery constraints prevent the radio from being always on, so you can't
>use it as a real-time pager.  It must be used instead as a sort of
>e-mail "companion" to check messages occasionally.
>
>Also, Web sites must be configured for the wireless service, so that
>will give pause to many Web site developers.  And, at $800, are the
>applications sufficiently compelling to purchase a device that will be
>more than twice as expensive as the highest-end Palm?
>
>Moreover, will people accept today's airtime prices?  My feeling is a
>key part to the success of this wireless e-commerce business will be
>advertiser-supported airtime.  Ticketmaster provides free information
>and airtime to send concert schedules so that subscribers will purchase
>tickets over the air.  E*Trade provides free stock quotes and analysis
>in exchange for wireless trading.
>
>3Com has also now challenged the Windows CE folks.  Manufacturers of
>Windows CE electronic organizers are exploring e-commerce opportunities
>with carriers. Keep your eye on the most innovative paging companies,
>such as PageMart, PageNet and Skytel, as well as aggressive cellular and
>PCS carriers.  Microsoft is promoting its "micro-browser" which is
>designed to provide wireless services that don't require a
>reconfiguration of Web sites. (We'll see if that actually occurs.)
>
>Microsoft and Qualcomm have teamed up to create WirelessKnowledge, a
>service bureau-kind of company that will enable users of many wireless
>devices and networks to obtain e-mail as other Exchange/Outlook data.
>In the future, information services will be added.
>
>So, within the past several weeks both Microsoft and 3Com have given a
>thumbs up to wireless -- at least some aspects of wireless -- and these
>two companies aim for mass business markets.
>
>My guess is that in 1999 we will see a significant number of innovative
>services offered over wireless networks.  This is just the beginning.
>
>
>
>============================================================================
>=====
>Alan A. Reiter, President                 |consulting, publications,
>conferences
>Wireless Internet & Mobile Computing      |E-Mail:
>reiter@wirelessinternet.com
>http://home.earthlink.net/~aareiter(new)  |Phone: 301-951-0385
>http://www.wirelessinternet.com           |Fax: 301-951-0387
>
>----- End forwarded message -----