IP: Here we go again Gold War phase 2 coming up (maybe not so cold)

[Dave Farber <farber@cis.upenn.edu>]

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>From: "James D. Wilson" <netsurf@sersol.com>
>To: "Dave Farber" <farber@cis.upenn.edu>
>
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>-----Original Message-----
>From: owner-cypherpunks@toad.com [mailto:owner-cypherpunks@toad.com]
>On
>Behalf Of Anonymous
>Sent: Wednesday, May 26, 1999 5:41 PM
>To: cypherpunks@toad.com
>Subject: Clinton to order 90,000 troops to Kosovo
>
>
>
>
><http://www.the-times.co.uk/news/pages/tim/99/05/27/timkoskos01007.htm
>l?1124027>
>
>  Clinton to order 90,000 troops to
>                          Kosovo
>
>                BY MICHAEL EVANS, DEFENCE EDITOR
>   PRESIDENT CLINTON is now ready to consider a full-scale land war
>   against Serb forces in Kosovo, sending up to 90,000 combat troops
>from
>   America, if no peace settlement emerges within the next three weeks.
>
>   Although Nato is only officially planning for a peace implementation
>force
>   of 50,000-60,000 troops, there is a growing feeling in Washington
>and
>   London that the alliance must prepare itself for a much bigger
>operation,
>   involving 150,000-160,000 troops.
>
>   Mr Clinton's dramatic conversion, after weeks of apparent reluctance
>to
>   send in ground troops, has emerged in the light of detailed
>briefings from
>   General Wesley Clark, the Supreme Allied Commander, last week.
>
>   A new sense of urgency has been injected into Nato's contingency
>   planning because of a warning from the military that a decision will
>have
>   to be made "by mid-June" if the alliance is to contemplate a ground
>   offensive.
>
>   The tight timetable is being dictated by the alliance's
>determination to start
>   returning ethnic Albanian refugees to their homes in Kosovo before
>the
>   winter.
>
>   The huge number of troops required for such an operation will be a
>   daunting challenge for Nato. However, alliance sources said that
>with Mr
>   Clinton committed to defeating Mr Milosevic one way or another, the
>US
>   would be expected to contribute more than half of the force.
>
>   They estimated the US contribution could be about 90,000 troops who
>   would be deployed from America, not from Germany. They might include
>   the 12,500-man US 82nd Airborne Division, based at Fort Bragg in
>North
>   Carolina, which was deployed in the Gulf War in 1991.
>
>   Britain and France would also be expected to play a major part.
>Yesterday,
>   George Robertson, the Defence Secretary, took the first step by
>   announcing an extra 12,000 troops and support personnel for the
>peace
>   implementation force, called Kfor. This will bring the total British
>military
>   strength committed to the Kosovo crisis in Albania, Macedonia, Italy
>and
>   the Adriatic to more than 19,000.
>
>   Although Mr Robertson insisted that it was not an invasion force,
>Tony
>   Blair indicated in the Commons that the troops could be used for a
>combat
>   role.
>
>   The alliance sources said that the size of an invasion force would
>depend
>   on the amount of damage achieved by the airstrikes against the Serb
>   troops in Kosovo over the next few weeks. Last week, it was
>estimated that
>   the Serb strength in the province remained at about 40,000 in spite
>of two
>   months of bombing.
>
>   However, Nato still hopes that the intensified bombing campaign
>   combined with Russian diplomatic efforts will persuade President
>   Milosevic to agree to the alliance's five conditions for stopping
>the
>   airstrikes.
>
>   It is also recognised that if Nato were seen to be preparing for a
>land
>   offensive, while backing Moscow's peace diplomacy, it could
>seriously
>   undermine the already strained relations between Russia and the
>alliance.
>
>   Another key factor is that the alliance itself has to be held
>together, and
>   any formal request made to the 19 member states for authority to
>plan for
>   a ground war could damage the unity that has been maintained so far.
>   Germany indicated yesterday that it would not veto a move towards a
>   ground war, although its troops would not take part.
>
>   One resolve shared by the whole of Nato is that Mr Milosevic must
>not
>   win, and the alliance sources said that if the air campaign and
>diplomatic
>   efforts failed to get the Yugoslav leader to back down within the
>next three
>   weeks, there would be no alternative but to prepare a ground
>offensive.
>
>   The alliance sources admitted that the operation would be difficult,
>"but
>   not impossible", and that a number of ways into the province were
>being
>   studied.
>