IP: Re: Fwd: the absence of the fantasy---er, Internet [Re: TOKYO ...3MBPS ADSL ...]

[Dave Farber <dave@farber.net>]

>Date: Mon, 29 Jan 2001 00:56:36 -0800
>From: Robert J Berger <rberger@ultradevices.com>
>To: farber@cis.upenn.edu, Brendan Kehoe <brendan@zen.org>
>Subject: Re: IP: Fwd: the absence of the fantasy---er, Internet [Re: TOKYO
>  ...3MBPS ADSL ...]
>
>My feeling (and where I'm putting my time as per my new startup, 
>UltraDevices) is that "fixed" broadband wireless technologies using 
>unlicensed spectrum (such as the 5.8Ghz UNII band) is a good  way to break 
>through this logjam.
>
>There is no way the monoplies are going to accelerate deployment. If 
>anything, they are now slowing it down as they have crushed their only 
>competition (I.e. the Covads, Northpoints and other CLECs). From what I've 
>heard its as bad or worse in most other countries (maybe not Finland?)
>
>I don't expect the cellular companies to do anything about this other than 
>hype 3G. I don't see how the cellular companies that do pursue a major 3G 
>buildout will survive. They have to first spend Billions of Dollars (or 
>Marks, or Francs) on purchasing Spectrum and then spend Billions more to 
>completely replace their existing networks. And then they still won't have 
>enough spectrum to deliver always on high usage broadband. In fact, I 
>expect we'll see the equivilant of the real estate bubble crashes but this 
>time the banks will be pulled down by the unrepayable debts from the 
>cellular carriers in a few years.
>
>We are starting to see a grass roots explosion of 802.11 wireless ethernet 
>buildouts here in the US. This is both in the public "hot spot" markets 
>(i.e. wireless LANs in cafes, hotels, airports and other public spaces) as 
>well as thousands of ISPs taking 802.11b wireless LAN products and 
>twisting them into wireless MAN applications.
>
>I believe this is part of the long term trend of IP over Ethernet over 
>various physical layers. We have seen it in the LAN, we are seeing it in 
>the fiber optic MAN and now in the wireless NANs (Neighborhood Area Networks).
>
>My expectation is that this use of wireless ethernet will sneak up on the 
>monopoly carriers / ITU sponsored Cellular networks just the same way as 
>did Ehternet / Internet. It will allow us to once more undermine the 
>people who want to charge by the bit and by the second. It will allow us 
>to get many more people connected faster than just about any other 
>technique on the horizon....
>
>
>--
>Robert J. Berger
>UltraDevices, Inc.
>257 Castro Street, Suite 223 Mt. View CA. 94041
>Voice: 408-882-4755 Fax: 408-490-2868
>Email: rberger@ultradevices.com  http://www.ultradevices.com



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