IP: Re: Comms recovery seen over next quarter or two

[David Farber <dave@farber.net>]

>Date: Tue, 31 Jul 2001 09:31:59 -0700
>From: "Robert J. Berger" <rberger@ultradevices.com>
>
>
>I suspect they are still being optimisitc. What will change to cause a 
>large re-uptake of comm equipment buying (other than going back to pre y2k 
>enterprise purchase rate)? There are no more competetive carriers left. 
>The one place there is a temnpoary glut is in the inter-city/inter-region 
>fiber as companies like Level 3, Qwest, Williams, Global Crossing, have 
>now each completed 18k - 33k miles of fiber build and will not need to buy 
>much more equipment for a while.
>
>The Competetive Local Exchange carriers have been killed off by a 
>combination of the ILECs maintaining absolute control of the copper 
>infrastructure and the wireless companies killed off by a combination of 
>their own greed/stupidity/investor fickleness/technological mischoices and 
>prematurity.
>
>The ILECs are not going to aggressively build out new high bandwidth local 
>services and we can expect the cable modem business (really the CATV 
>business with a side cable modem business) to be focused on gouging the 
>couch potatos and not really investing in buildouts to upgrade their last 
>mile infrastructure.
>
>So without the last mile gap being filled, we will continue to be in a 
>Telecom Dark Ages led by feudal ILEC lords and their supporters in the 
>current administration...
>
>
>--
>Robert J. Berger
>UltraDevices, Inc.
>257 Castro Street, Suite 223 Mt. View CA. 94041
>Email: rberger@ultradevices.com http://www.ultradevices.com
>Voice: 408-882-4755 Fax: 408-490-2868



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