IP: Re: Comms recovery seen over next quarter or two

[David Farber <dave@farber.net>]

>Date: Tue, 31 Jul 2001 09:03:09 -0700
>From: Ari Ollikainen <Ari@OLTECO.com>
>Subject: Re: IP: Comms recovery seen over next quarter or two
>X-Sender: ari@mail.olteco.com
>To: farber@cis.upenn.edu
>Cc: dewayne@warpspeed.com
>
>>>
>>>In the short term, this year will certainly see a decline in the overall 
>>>optical networking gear market, he said, with total worldwide revenues 
>>>likely in the $23.4 billion range, down from almost $29 billion last 
>>>year. Smith said this year's drop puts the market onto a more realistic 
>>>path, noting that at the height of last year's euphoria, some analysts 
>>>were forecasting that the optical networking market could reach $80 
>>>billion by 2004. "That is a big chunk of the entire world's GDP, and 
>>>rational people have to question that," he said.
>
>         Rational people would question statements such as the above ...
>         One wonders which world Smith is living in? As a comparative,
>         California's current annual state BUDGET is $103 billion.
>         California's year 2000 GDP has been reported as $1.33 TRILLION
>         making California now the worlds fifth largest economy...
>
>         The World Bank's world GDP for 1999 was reported as $29 TRILLION.
>         For 1999:
>         US GDP was $8.4 trillion,
>         Japan, $4.1 trillion,
>         Germany, $2.1 trillion,
>         France and UK, $1.4 trillion each,
>         and Italy, $1.1 trillion.
>         China's GDP was almost $1 trillion,
>         Brazil, $743 billion,
>         Spain, $552 billion.
>         India's GDP, $442 billion,
>         Mexico's, $429 billion.
>         California's GDP was $1.2 trillion in 1999.
>
>
>         [...snip...]
>>>
>>>David Rickey, president and chief executive of Applied Micro Circuits 
>>>Corp., is even more optimistic than his peers. "We think we've hit the 
>>>bottom," he said. Judging from the pace at which his backlog grew last 
>>>year, and then shrank this year due to cancellations, he thinks the 
>>>worst is over. "Our backlog is now close to zero, and we are seeing a 
>>>lot less tendency toward cancellations, because there is nothing left to 
>>>cancel. There is nowhere to go but up, but it sure is a bummer about the 
>>>$1 billion in lost orders."
>         The above implies that orders and production are in balance, not
>         that there are no orders...
>
>         Perhaps AMCC's Rickey doesn't want to face the possibility that
>         there might be nowhere else to go except out of business?
>



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