IP: 4G Status

[Dave Farber <dave@farber.net>]

------ Forwarded Message
From: Dewayne Hendricks <dewayne@warpspeed.com>

[Note:  This item comes from reader Janos Gereben.  DLH]

At 18:14 -0700 7/25/02, Janos G. wrote:
>From: "Janos G." <janos451@earthlink.net>
>To: "D.H." <dewayne@warpspeed.com>
>Subject: 4G Status
>Date: Thu, 25 Jul 2002 18:14:55 -0700
>MIME-Version: 1.0
>
>
>What is 4G?
>by Ray Hegarty / http://www.the451.com
>Thu, 25 Jul 2002
>
>With the wireless industry continuing to struggle with debt, plunging share
>prices and delays in the rollout of 2.5G and 3G technology, the question of
>what will constitute a fourth-generation wireless system might appear
>irrelevant. Yet the larger network providers and wireless carriers are
>already beginning to formulate areas for potential research.
>
>THE MESSAGE Mobile systems pass through technology shifts every 10 years or
>so, and if large network systems providers and wireless carriers want to
>remain competitive, they need to plan for future trends and technologies and
>allocate R&D budgets now rather than later.
>
>COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE Involvement in so-called academic or conceptual R&D
>around 4G enables market leaders to play a significant role once the battle
>between future competing standards occurs.
>
>THE451 TAKE We expect several 4G concepts to trickle down into future 3GPP
>releases. While market leaders do not want wireless to move too quickly,
>they recognize the need to remain aware of technologies that could
>cannibalize their own value proposition.
>
>BUSINESS MODEL Historically, mobile systems have tended to go through
>technology shifts every 10 years. In order to remain competitive, large
>network systems providers and wireless carriers need to plan for future
>trends and technologies and allocate R&D budgets now rather than later.
>
>We think that several '4G' concepts currently under discussion could find
>their way into the 3G system infrastructure in the future. That's because 3G
>is not one release, but a series of releases offering fixes and enhancements
>that build upon previous versions. Involvement in so-called academic, or
>conceptual, R&D around 4G will enable market leaders to play a significant
>role in the battle between competing standards. Market leaders do not want
>wireless to move too quickly, but they recognize the need to remain aware of
>technologies that might cannibalize their own value proposition. For
>example, the rapid deployment of 802.11 technology in Europe and the US
>threatens carriers' and cellular network infrastructure providers' bottom
>lines. One of the key areas of 4G R&D will be enabling devices to switch
>between different types of networks.
>
>COMPETITION Several industry standards groups made up of manufacturers,
>carriers and academic institutions - including the IPv6 Forum, SDR Forum,
>3GPP and the Wireless World Research Forum - are helping to formulate a
>vision of a 4G wireless world. The Internet Engineering Task Force (IETF)
>and the Mobile Wireless Internet Forum (MWIF) are also expected to play a
>part in 4G development.
>
>Manufacturers and carriers are already looking to build on existing 3G
>specifications. AT&T has been developing a network prototype called 4G
>Access that combines Enhanced Data Rates for GSM Evolution (EDGE) with
>wideband orthogonal frequency division multiplexing (OFDM). Nortel has been
>working on software radio power amplifier technology needed to make higher
>wireless speeds a reality, and the streaming media research group of HP Labs
>has been working on systems for delivering multimedia content over
>next-generation networks.
>
>Meanwhile, Ericsson has invested over $10m to fund research of
>next-generation CDMA and 4G mobile technology at the University of
>California. NTT DoCoMo's research labs are constructing a trial 4G network
>based on the ITU's proposals. The system combines variable spreading factor
>(VSF) and OFDM technologies. Japan's Ministry of Post and Telecommunications
>is shelling out subsidies of over ¥2bn ($17m) through Japan's Communications
>Research Laboratory and Telecommunications Advancement Organization to
>develop core 4G technology, such as software radios.
>
>Research is not just centered on new network concepts and radio interfaces.
>There is a concerted attempt to identify how wireless technology can
>complement a more user-focused wireless world. One major shift already
>taking place in the wireless business model, and one we expect to inform the
>4G business and technology model for the future, is the move from a
>device-driven world to a service- and experience-centered world. Studies are
>now assessing new ways that users will interact with wireless systems, new
>services and applications that might become possible with the new
>technologies, and new business models that may prevail in the future,
>overcoming the traditional user-server-provider hierarchy.
>
>TECHNOLOGY At the most general level, the 4G architecture will include three
>basic areas of connectivity: personal area networking (PAN), local
>high-speed access points on the network, and cellular connectivity.
>
>The dominant PAN technology right now is Bluetooth, which enables, for
>example, devices such as cellular phones, PCs and home entertainment systems
>and monitors to talk with each other at distances of less than 100 meters.
>In the second level of connectivity, devices can connect to high-speed
>access points on the network, called 'hot spots.' Wireless LAN, or 892.11x,
>is the dominant technology here, with connection speeds of about 10Mbps. The
>third level, cellular connectivity, will reach connection speeds of up to
>30Mbps by 2005, and 100Mbps by 2010, some researchers predict.
>
>In addition, IP version 6 is expected to enable deployment of voice and
>multimedia data over IP. For some reason, IPv6 was overlooked when the ITU
>was formulating its 3G spec. An IPv6 forum has been established to promote
>the development of applications for the new protocol. Members include Cisco,
>Hewlett-Packard and Compaq, telecom operators AT&T, BT and NTT DoCoMo, and
>telecom equipment manufacturers Ericsson, Nokia and Motorola.
>
>The glue for all this is likely to be software defined radio. SDR enables
>devices such as cell phones, PDAs, PCs and a whole range of connected
>devices to scan the airwaves for the best possible method of connectivity,
>at the best price. In an SDR environment, functions that were formerly
>carried out solely in hardware - such as the generation of the transmitted
>radio signal and the tuning of the received radio signal - are performed by
>software. Thus, the radio is programmable and able to transmit and receive
>over a wide range of frequencies while emulating virtually any desired
>transmission format.
>
>STRENGTHS As a result of the lessons learned from WAP and initial 2.5G, the
>industry is making a much more concerted attempt to identify how future
>wireless technology can complement the wireless business model. 4G business
>and technology development will be informed by the shift from a
>device-driven world to a service- and experience-centered world.
>
>WEAKNESSES There are significant technical challenges to overcome.
>
>OPPORTUNITIES Interconnectivity drives the notion of ubiquitous computing -
>where small computational devices are embedded into our everyday environment
>in a way that allows them to be operated seamlessly and transparently. These
>devices are meant to be active and aware of their surroundings so that they
>can react and emit information when needed.
>
>THREATS Interconnectivity will require an agreement over basic communication
>standards - and history suggests reaching an agreement will be problematic.
>The current sluggish economic environment will lead to convergence, less
>competition and more conservative deployments schedules.


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