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Subject: [IP] IT job trends: The buck starts here
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From: "John F. McMullen" <observer@westnet.com>
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IT job trends: The buck starts here
Best bets in 2003 and beyond
by David Foote
It's tough to get a firm grip on the state of the IT job market, given
today's ragged worldwide economic conditions, cascading reductions in
force, and the unrelenting pace of technological change. Career planning
for IT workers is downright confusing, whether you're employed, unemployed
or underemployed. For those pondering the next step in their IT careers,
this edition of the IT Career Expert newsletter nets some of the best (and
worst) bets when it comes to different technical skills, industries and
geographic locations.
The bucks start here
2002 was a tough year for IT pay. Total compensation for 85 IT positions
tracked by Foote Partners declined by an average of 2.8%, with cash
bonuses falling by 32%. This research was conducted using input from
32,000 IT professionals (see Methodology).
Bucking the downward trend were corporate security jobs (up an average of
5.5% in base pay and 3.3% in total compensation), plus jobs for
experienced networking professionals and for application systems
developers working in e-commerce-related areas.
Moreover, premium pay for security certification bonuses rose 11.3% in
value in 2002 and an even more impressive 31% over the past two years,
according to our research. The growth was due largely to several GIAC
technical niche certifications from the SANS Institute and renewed
interest in the management-oriented Certified Information Systems Security
Professional and Certified Information Systems Auditor certifications. All
registered between 11% and 38% growth last year.
Median premium pay for 54 technical certifications has grown a surprising
0.5% over the past two dreadful years (even with a modest 3.3% decline in
2002), led not just by security but also by solid performances recently by
certifications in project management, Linux (up 17%), and networking (most
notably Novell Inc.'s Certified Novell Engineer and Master Certified
Novell Engineer).
Also hot: skills in voice over IP, Wireless Markup Language (WML), DB2,
VoiceXML, SAP AG's ABAP language, and NetWare; all these skills grew in
value in 2002. The highest paying? Rapid application development/extreme
programming, XML, SQL Server, WML and Oracle database and enterprise
applications skills.
Foote Partners' best bets for short- and long-term career direction:
Security management
Network management
Enterprise infrastructure and architecture
SAP-related development
Wireless
Project management
Project-based work implementing customer-facing systems and
processes
Databases
Business technology
Are you 'geographically' challenged?
Do you live in a location that is helping or hurting your chances for a
good job in IT? Monthly metropolitan area employment statistics issued by
the Department of Labor provide some clues. December 2002 statistics,
available at DOL data, reveals the following bright spots, summarized here
in order of relative performance:
Largest over-the-year, non-farm employment increases:
Riverside-San Bernardino, Calif. (+22,000 jobs)
Las Vegas
Miami
San Diego
Largest over-the-year percentage employment increases:
Elkhart-Goshen, Ind. (+4.5%)
Fayetteville-Springdale-Rogers, Ark.
McAllen-Edinburg-Mission, Texas
Santa Fe, N.M.
Tacoma, Wash.
Atlantic City-Cape May, N.J.
Laredo, Texas
Madison, Wis.
Wausau, Wis.
Savannah, Ga.
Asheville, N.C.
Lowest unemployment rates for large metropolitan areas:
Greater Washington, D.C. (3.1%)
Minneapolis-St. Paul, Minn.
Largest over-the-year unemployment declines in large metropolitan
areas:
Las Vegas (1.9%)
Miami
Orlando, Fla.
And these are the metropolitan areas less likely to support IT jobs,
according to the December labor statistics:
Highest unemployment rates in large metropolitan areas:
San Jose, Calif. (7.5%)
New York
Portland, Ore.-Vancouver, British Columbia
Largest over-the-year, non-farm employment declines:
Chicago (-57,400 jobs)
New York
Detroit
Seattle
San Jose, Calif.
Atlanta
San Francisco
The largest over-the-year percentage employment declines:
Flint, Mich. (4.3%)
Decatur, Ill.
Bridgeport, Conn.
Boulder-Longmont, Colo.
Albany, Ga.
Witchita, Kan.
Elmira-Binghamton, N.Y.
Looking beyond 2003, several emerging job markets will produce more IT
jobs. The Albany, N.Y., area and surrounding region are receiving
substantial investments from the state government and private investors
that are intended to attract technology businesses. Sematech -- an Austin,
Texas-based consortium of 12 semiconductor companies from seven countries
-- will soon be opening its newest program in Albany.
Business is surging for defense contractors and the biomedical firms in
Washington, D.C., and northern Virginia, where the jobless rate is the
nation's lowest. The Northern Virginia Technology Council estimates a
current demand for some 4,000 to 5,000 IT workers, especially government
contractors with security clearances.
In California, an array of medical device and biomedical companies needing
IT pros (including Baxter International Inc. and Becton, Dickinson and
Company) are also figuring into job growth in the 28,000-square mile,
three-county Riverside-San Bernardino area east of Los Angeles. But the
primary reason why this area, dubbed the Inland Empire region, created the
most jobs in the country last year: it's become a burgeoning center for
distribution, requiring specialized skills in logistics and IT.
Las Vegas and Reno, Nev., are enjoying strong job growth tied to the
post-September 11 return of gaming and leisure customers. Jobs are
returning to Miami and Orlando, Fla., for some of the same reasons.
There's no doubt that industry has a lot to do with where IT employment
can be found. Manufacturing continues to be the weakest industry division,
according to Department of Labor research, which cites employment growth
in the services, government, finance, insurance and real estate
industries. My firm's research findings indicate IT job growth in the
financial services, defense, insurance, health care, pharmaceutical and
biomedical industries, but continued hard times for IT workers in the
technology, wholesale/retail, and media/publishing sectors.
Trends to watch closely
Disaffected, stressed-out, private-sector IT workers with worthless stock
options are more aggressively seeking jobs in federal and state
government. Who could blame them? Why wouldn't they want a more relaxed
work environment, shorter hours, generous family-friendly benefits and
better job security? Especially those who risk losing their jobs
permanently to offshore technicians, contractors and part-time workers who
can work more cheaply and provide IT executives with greater flexibility
and responsiveness. So-called permanent layoffs are a deadly serious
employment trend that have appeared not just in our research but in a
report issued in August by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which confirmed
that a structural downsizing began more than a decade ago -- a downsizing
that's similar to the workforce reductions in manufacturing and aerospace
jobs during the last century.
For a free copy of Foote Partners' just-released "2003 Trends Report on
Technical Certifications & Skills Pay" go to this URL and follow the
instructions.
ABOUT THE AUTHOR:
David Foote is president and chief research officer at Foote Partners LLC,
the management consultancy and IT workforce research firm he cofounded in
1997. He was formerly an industry analyst at Gartner Inc. and Meta Group,
where he founded and directed Meta's CIO/CTO research service and led its
IT human capital management and compensation research areas. During the
past 20 years -- including a decade in Silicon Valley as a technology
executive and industry consultant -- Foote has advised corporations and
governments on five continents in information-age management strategies.
His editorial columns, articles and contributions appear weekly in a
variety of popular business, IT and human resources publications, and are
broadcast on the radio and through webcasts. Contact him at
dfoote@footepartners.com or 203-972-6689.
"When you come to the fork in the road, take it" - L.P. Berra
"Always make new mistakes" -- Esther Dyson
"Be precise in the use of words and expect precision from others" -
Pierre Abelard
"Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic"
-- Arthur C. Clarke
John F. McMullen
johnmac@acm.org ICQ: 4368412 Fax: (603) 288-8440 johnmac@cyberspace.org
http://www.westnet.com/~observer
NOYFB,P
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