[IP] Is Apple creating the FCC's worst fear?]

[Dave Farber <dave@farber.net>]

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- -------- Original Message --------
Subject: [Dewayne-Net] re: Is Apple creating the FCC's worst fear?
Date: Sat, 11 Feb 2006 06:40:24 -0800
From: Dewayne Hendricks <dewayne@warpspeed.com>
Reply-To: dewayne@warpspeed.com
To: Dewayne-Net Technology List <dewayne-net@warpspeed.com>
References: <20060211142724.87A1A3C0E6@dl1.dtc.umn.edu>

[Note:  This comment comes from reader Andrew Odlyzko.  Andrew forgot
one important member of the content food chain, the lawyers.  DLH]

> From: odlyzko@dtc.umn.edu (Andrew Odlyzko)
> Date: February 11, 2006 6:27:24 AM PST
> To: dewayne@warpspeed.com
> Subject: Re: [Dewayne-Net] Is Apple creating the FCC's worst fear?
>
> Dewayne,
>
> At last, a welcome wake up call for the telcos, which have been  
> dreaming
> about streaming for decades, oblivious to the world around them.
>
> A few points:
>
> 1.  That movies and music would be delivered primarily as file  
> transfers
> for local storage and reply was predicted more than a decade ago.   
> It is
> a simple consequence of technology trends.
>
> 2.  File transfers already dominate.  Perhaps Video iPod will make the
> telecom industry realize this, but Napster made files dominant half a
> dozen years ago.  All that P2P traffic that everyone agrees is now the
> dominant form of traffic on the Internet is in the form of file  
> transfers.
> Streaming traffic is far smaller.
>
> 3.  One thing that is not mentioned in this story, but is relevant, is
> that it is faster-than-real-time file transfers that are likely to  
> dominate.
> After all, do you want to wait 2 hours for that movie to download  
> to your
> Video iPod?  If you want it there, to take along on the plane ride  
> or to
> the beach, in 5 minutes, you have got to have a transmission link that
> is 24 times faster than what is required for real-time streaming.
>
> I have been asking in my networking-related lectures how many people
> see any point (in a loose sense, for either consumers or service  
> providers)
> in having faster-than-real-time movie transfers.  The highest positive
> response rate I ever got was about 20%.  That means people just don't
> understand this.  Yet faster-than-real-time transfers already  
> dominate.
> Here in the U.S., we have mostly MP3 music files, which are encoded
> at 100-200 Kbps, and are flying around at 0.5 - 3 Mbps.  In places  
> like
> Korea, network traffic is dominated by movies, which are encoded at
> typically under 1 Mbps, but are moving across the network at 5-10  
> Mbps.
>
> Some further arguments for faster-than-real-time transfers are at
>
>   <http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko/doc/tv.internet.pdf>
>
> 4.  It is very questionable whether "content revenue could dwarf  
> the revenue
> generated by voice and the Internet."  People have traditionally  
> valued
> connectivity far more than content, see "Content is not king,"
>
>   <http://firstmonday.org/issues/issue6_2/odlyzko/>
>
> Furthermore, content does not come for free.  All those musicians,  
> directors,
> and studio executives like to get paid.  In fact, the telcos'  
> entrance into
> the movie distribution business is making them salivate at the  
> prospects
> of real competition in delivery methods, so they can get of the  
> revenue
> stream that cable now collects.
>
> Andrew

Weblog at: <http://weblog.warpspeed.com>


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