[IP] do read more on Suggestion Regarding Google/IE Search Default Controversy

[David Farber <dave@farber.net>]

Begin forwarded message:

From: Brad Templeton <btm@templetons.com>
Date: May 2, 2006 2:12:39 PM EDT
To: David Farber <dave@farber.net>
Cc: lauren@vortex.com, zwhite@darkstar.frop.org
Subject: Re: [IP] more on Suggestion Regarding Google/IE Search  
Default Controversy

On Tue, May 02, 2006 at 12:39:42PM -0400, David Farber wrote:
> First, google's share of the search pie will increase as techies go
> around
> switching the search engine on their friend's and relative's  
> computers.
> Since most users aren't even aware of what a search engine is, they'll
> simply accept whatever comes up when they click in the "search bar"  
> and
> type in their search.
>
> Second, we'll see new malware that reconfigures the search engine  
> for a
> user. Many users will just assume that "The Internet Search" is being
> redesigned everytime they get infected with a new malware.

Actually, it was suggested to me that people here are ignoring one very
large gorilla -- the OEMs.    The choice of what search to use will
most likely be set by Dell, HP and the rest, and they are not under the
same monopoly fears as Microsoft.

Indeed, they will surely make the default choice depend on which search
company offers them the biggest kickback on the revenue from the  
searches
from the bar.

As we know, Mozilla is now every well funded by offering that search bar
with a default to Google.   The potential kickback to Dell or HP or  
other
vendors is even larger.     If numbers are to be believed (72M for  
firefox
with a 12% market share) this suggests 60M to 100M (there will be a  
bidding
war) per 10% of market share.  No small change.

Indeed, it seems entirely possible that the kickback could be large  
enough
TO PAY FOR THE OEM'S PER PC COST OF WINDOWS VISTA.

Indeed, how long before search and online shopping become so lucrative
that you can get a free computer so long as you agree to a few such
arrangements.  As Moore's law drives the price of the computer down and
the value of online commercial activities grow, the lines will  
intersect at
some point.



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