one percent market share, Re: [IP] All hail the new iPhone

[David Farber <dave@farber.net>]

Begin forwarded message:

From: Ed Gerck <egerck@nma.com>
Date: January 12, 2007 3:18:20 PM EST
To: dave@farber.net
Cc: ip@v2.listbox.com
Subject: one percent market share, Re: [IP] All hail the new iPhone

David,

I was surprised with Steve Jobs' market argument for reaching Apple's
sales goal for the iPhone. He justified selling 10 million iPhone/year
by saying that it was only 1% of the market (dominated by tough players,
he said).

Well, using very low percentages to make a very high number more  
credible is
an old trick, and a well-known bad example in marketing 101, that a  
lot of
investors are rightfully wary of (even Steve's clicker did not like it).

But 10 million units of new hardware + software per year, with no  
customer
support or warranty service in place, is still a very high number --
very low
percentage or not.

Furthermore, what is Apple experience in selling 10 million units of
anything,
not mention anything as complex as a combination of "phone + iPod +
Internet
interface"?  Just selling and servicing 10 million iPods would be a
challenge,
one might think.

I wonder what IP'ers would think.

BTW, perhaps a nice result of the iPhone is that Mac users may now
finally get a new
version of Safari. Last update: Version 2.0.4 (419.3), (c) 2005.

Best,
Ed Gerck


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