[IP] Re: Why Helio Didn't Connect

[David Farber <dave@farber.net>]

________________________________________
From: Jonathan P Gill [jock.gill@gmail.com]
Sent: Monday, July 07, 2008 12:34 PM
To: Dewayne Hendricks
Cc: Jonathan P Gill; Bill Frezza; David Farber
Subject: Re: [Dewayne-Net] Re: Why Helio Didn't Connect

Bill,

I just love the way you, like too many surgeons, are so cock sure you
are right when you are quite possible terribly wrong. Of course,
within the frame work of the tautologies of the Cold War world view,
the Chicago School of Economics and Game Theory, you are quite
possibly  correct.

But what if that perspective is in fact dead wrong? Indeed, I would
argue that it is precisely this world view that has put "spaceship
earth" directly on the path very significant troubles in the very near
future.  I am not sure "Scotty" has even 15 minutes to repair the life
support systems.

If this is true, then perhaps the order of the day is a new and more
appropriate world view, perhaps a Peer-to-Peer world view.  Such a
world view might very well lead to the sorts of visions for the
internet Vint Cerf recently sketched out.  What could we do with
wireless communications if we embraced an Open Spectrum model
supported by software defined radios that leveraged receiver
developments, which I am assured, are now following Moore's Law?

The fact of the mater is that I strongly suspect that the exhausted
world view that leads you to your current position on wireless is, in
fact, a true liability that is holding our nation back from the
possibility of a dramatic expansion, much less repairing the life
support systems of spaceship earth.

Regards,

Jock

Jock Gill
Pellet Futures
P.O. Box 3
Peacham,  VT  05862
Live Green & Thrive!
O: +1 (781) 396-0492
C: +1 (617) 449-8111
VT: (802) 613-1444



On Jul 7, 2008, at 10:43 AM, Dewayne Hendricks wrote:

> [Note:  This comment comes from a reader of Dave Farber's IP list.
> DLH]
>
> From: William A. Frezza [waf@acm.com]
> Sent: Monday, July 07, 2008 8:54 AM
> To: Bob Frankston; David Farber; ip
> Cc: Robert J. Berger; bill@BILLMELTON.com
> Subject: RE: [IP] Why Helio Didn't Connect
>
> Bob,
>
> My reflex answer to these challenges is “let the market sort it out
> – keep the regulators out of it.” But of course, you already knew
> that. ☺
>
> Municipal Wi-Fi will NEVER work as an independent service because
> both operating costs and available bandwidth will always be
> dominated by backhaul. THE TRAFFIC MODELS DO NOT COMPUTE! Same for
> Wi-Max. The larger the cell size, the more users have to share the
> backhaul bandwidth, the fatter the backhaul pipe has to be, the more
> it will cost to lease from the wireline incumbent. The smaller the
> cell size, the denser the backhaul web required, the more it will
> cost to lease from the wireline incumbent. At the end of the day all
> profits, if there should be any, get sucked out by the wireline
> incumbents. Use regulation to force the incumbent cable and telco
> operators to provide subsidized service and the quality of this
> service will degrade to the point where it is not useable for any
> revenue producing applications. Use wireless backhaul and you choke
> on your own traffic.
>
> The only architecture I have ever seen that passes the traffic model
> test is the old Amperion architecture – Wi-Fi access points hung on
> the intermediate voltage electric power distribution network, which
> is very dense and perfectly deployed in any city worth serving.
> (Rural markets are uninteresting.) Pity that Amperion failed. The
> reason is that the electric utilities are brain dead. Why are they
> brain dead? That’s what decades of regulation does to your brain.
>
> On to other things. Wireless is done.
>
> Best regards,
>
> Bill Frezza, General Partner
> Adams Capital Management, Inc.
>
>> From: Bob Frankston [mailto:bob37-2@bobf.frankston.com]
>> Sent: Thursday, July 03, 2008 11:41 AM
>> To: dave@farber.net; 'ip'
>> Cc: William A. Frezza; 'Robert J. Berger'
>> Subject: RE: [IP] Why Helio Didn't Connect
>>
>> The silo-effect—the flip side of the network effect.
>>
>> I remember listening to Sky Dayton talking about his Layer 2 focus
>> in Earthlink and the important of focusing on your layer. Of course
>> once Earthlink got acquired by Sprint it became part of their silo.
>> But silos are precisely what doomed Helio – it not realistic to
>> expect people to buy a different device for each purpose. Helio was
>> a bet that people would join their community as long as they could
>> also make some phone calls. But tying the function not just to a
>> device for a silo meant that forced people to up give something up
>> in order to join.
>>
>> We are indeed locked into problematic business models – the idea
>> that the way to make money is to own a silo or service-business.
>> This is why I’ve called most muni-Wi-Fi efforts to be muni-bells.
>>
>> There are alternatives and investors/entrepreneurs who are willing
>> and even proud of their ability to do good stuff cheap – that was
>> the theme that Jim Crowe emphasized when we spoke about his, then
>> future, Level 3 effort.
>>
>> The problem is that as the government insists that telecom is about
>> selling transport and then creates a regulatory system to will a
>> nonviable model into existence. As long as we continence that
>> foolishness we’ll continue to be frustrated by the lack of a
>> common infrastructure and we’ll continue to see people like Jim
>> Crowe forced to create scarcity in order to create value.
>>
>> Of course being able to assume a common infrastructure means that
>> Helio goes from being an expensive infrastructure play to another
>> attempt to build a community and yet another provider of some
>> services. In looking at http://www.helio.com/page?
>> p=devices#services it’s not clear what is distinctive – the
>> company’s seemed to have been betting that it could create its own
>> silo. The iPhone has shown that it’s not impossible – but I’d
>> rather not be limited to a choice of silos. Nor should I have to
>> care whether bits are wired or not wired … the whole wired/
>> wireless distinction is just another silo.




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