[IP] How many Phish in the Sea?

[David Farber <dave@farber.net>]

Begin forwarded message:

From: dewayne@warpspeed.com (Dewayne Hendricks)
Date: January 23, 2009 11:37:57 PM EST
To: Dewayne-Net Technology List <xyzzy@warpspeed.com>
Subject: [Dewayne-Net] How many Phish in the Sea?

[Note:  This item comes from reader Randall.  DLH]

From: Randall Webmail <rvh40@insightbb.com>
Date: January 23, 2009 4:26:57 PM PST
To: johnmacsgroup@yahoogroups.com
Cc: dewayne@warpspeed.com
Subject: How many Phish in the Sea?

Phishing Doesn't Pay, Microsoft Finds

Lured by bad math and get-rich-quick pipe dreams into a life of  
cybercrime, those phishing for dollars confront a problem not unlike  
that faced by traditional anglers: too few fish in the sea.

By Thomas Claburn
InformationWeek
January 23, 2009 05:25 PM

Phishing doesn't pay very well and tends to attract low-skill hackers  
who themselves become victims.

So say two Microsoft (NSDQ: MSFT) researchers, Cormac Herley and Dinei  
Florencio, in their recently published paper, "A Profitless Endeavor:  
Phishing As Tragedy Of The Commons."

Part of the blame for this sorry state of affairs can be laid at the  
feet of exaggerated phishing loss estimates. "We estimate that recent  
public estimates over-state phishing losses by as much as a factor of  
fifty," the paper explains.

Who might be to blame for such inflation? Try the media, which finds  
big dangers more compelling than little ones, and the security  
industry, which can't sell goods or services in the absence of a clear  
and present danger.

Lured by bad math and get-rich-quick pipe dreams into a life of  
cybercrime, those phishing for dollars confront a problem not unlike  
that faced by traditional anglers: too few fish in the sea. The result  
is what's known as the tragedy of the commons, wherein a limited  
resource becomes depleted when self-interest supersedes group interest.

[snip]

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