[IP] Re: Google map of H1N1 Swine Flu

Begin forwarded message:

From: Mary Shaw <mary.shaw@gmail.com>

Date: April 28, 2009 10:09:03 AM EDT

Subject: Re: [IP] Re: Google map of H1N1 Swine Flu

Raw numbers may currently be low, but this is the right time to be concerned about the propagation rate. The best way to get ahead of exponential growth is to nip in in the bud. Most of us here are computer scientists, we're supposed to understand exponential growth.

My take: we have better communication and knowledge sharing than we did a century ago. But people are much more mobile.

In the 14th century the Black Plauge followed trade routes http://www.uoregon.edu/~dluebke/WesternCiv102/Plague-Routes-Eurasia.jpg and the current swine flu is moving from continent to continent on passenger airplanes.

Mary

On Tue, Apr 28, 2009 at 4:34 AM, David Farber <dave@farber.net> wrote:

Begin forwarded message:

From: Vadim Antonov <avg@kotovnik.com>
Date: April 27, 2009 8:51:22 PM EDT
To: David Farber <dave@farber.net>
Cc: ip <ip@v2.listbox.com>
Subject: Re: [IP] Google map of H1N1 Swine Flu

David, for IP list, if you wish.

The current swine flu does look like the replay of events in 1976:

http://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1894129,00.html

It is different virus, but the tactics being pushed is the same. The
offical over-reaction to the swine flu back then caused way more damage
than the flu itself (any person familiar with history of public health
initiatives won't fail to see that it fits with the overall pattern).

To put the swine flu in perspective, the garden-variety influenza on
average causes about 40000 deaths in US anually. For some reason I don't
see people permanently runing scared with faces covered by masks and
barricading themselves in their homes.

--vadim

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